I need some more good thoughts.
Our alpaca vet came out yesterday morning and x-rayed it. It's a pretty clean splinter fracture (not sure about the correct terminology) above the elbow. The options are not good. He can stay on stall rest for 2 months and hope it heals, with a sling maybe, to help immobilize the leg a bit. Or he can go to the vet school and have surgically implanted pins. And then be on stall rest for 2 months.
Neither option has great odds -- about 50/50 in both cases. And obviously the surgery is expensive and very stressful and disruptive to him and the companion (Abel) I'd have to take with him. And remember the reindeer at the clinic when Bumbleebee was sick? He had had surgery on a broken leg. I don't know how it turned out in the end, but the last time I visited, he was still there with complications from the surgery. Complications are common.
Cain's fleece is not that great. People are dumping alpacas left and right around here. He has no monetary value at all. But I promised him a good, safe forever home when I took him in, so I need a crystal ball and a good decision here. Not sure what to do at all, but any positive thoughts are welcomed.